International Optimism: The IMF View
According to the latest release from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Vietnam remains a regional "bright spot." The Fund projects Vietnam’s GDP growth to reach 6.5% in 2025, maintaining a steady 6.5–6.6% trajectory through 2026.
Despite facing headwinds from U.S. tariff policies and global trade volatility, the IMF highlights Vietnam's stable macro economic foundation and positive long-term outlook. Crucially, the quality of growth is improving. Foreign DirectInvestment (FDI) flows are not just increasing but are increasingly channeled into high-value manufacturing and processing. This, combined with rising labor productivity, is strengthening the economy's structural resilience.
The Government’s Bold Target: 8% or Higher
While international organizations remain cautiously optimistic, the Vietnamese Government is aiming much higher.
Under the newly issued Resolution 366/NQ-CP (following the October 2025 cabinet meeting), the administration has set a determined goal to achieve a full-year GDP growth rate of 8% or more.
To hit this target, the economy must sprint through the finish line. Specifically,the fourth quarter of 2025 needs to see growth of over 8.4%. Thegovernment has set specific sector targets to drive this acceleration:
- Industry: Growth of > 9.4%.
- Services: Growth of ~ 8.3%.
- Agriculture: Growth of ~ 4%.
- Digital Economy: Targeted to account for approximately 20% of GDP.
Strategic Pillars for the Future
Toturn these ambitious numbers into reality, the government is doubling down on astrategy of "high-quality growth." Key directives include:
1. Smarter FDI: Prioritizing foreign investment that brings technology transfer and modern management expertise, rather than just capital.
2. New Economic Models: Accelerating the transition towarddigital, green, and circular economies.
3. Regional Links: Strengthening economic zones and regionalconnectivity to create new engines of growth.