Recently, the Ministry of Finance submitted to the Government a draft resolution to replace Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP, outlining key tasks and solutions for the implementation of the 2025 socio-economic development plan. The draft sets an ambitious target: GDP growth of over 8% in 2025. This is a strategic move as Vietnam faces increasing global challenges, particularly from evolving tariff policies.
Pressure to Adjust Growth Scenarios
Although Vietnam’s GDP growth in Q1 2025 reached 6.93%, it fell short of the targeted 7.7%. However, the Government remains firmly committed to the 8% annual growth goal. To achieve this, GDP must grow substantially in the remaining quarters—8.2% in Q2, 8.3% in Q3, and 8.4% in Q4—requiring bold and timely economic policy interventions.
One of the major external pressures currently weighing on Vietnam’s growth outlook is tariff uncertainty from the United States. Despite a temporary suspension of certain tariffs, Vietnamese exporters still face elevated trade barriers, significantly impacting their competitiveness in the U.S.—Vietnam’s largest export market.
Tariff “Wild Card” and Trade War Risks
While there have been some encouraging signals from ongoing diplomatic engagement, tariff negotiations with the U.S. remain highly unpredictable. Research institutions such as UOB warn that high tariffs could erode Vietnam’s export competitiveness and drag down GDP growth. UOB forecasts that without resolution, Vietnam's 2025 GDP growth could dip to just 6%—well below the official target.
Economist Can Van Luc has proposed three possible growth scenarios. The baseline forecast predicts growth between 6.5%–7%, assuming moderate tariff levels. In an optimistic scenario—with favorable U.S. negotiations—growth could reach 7.5%–8%. The downside scenario sees growth falling to 5.5%–6% if the trade war intensifies.
Government Remains Committed to 8% Growth with Bold Measures
Despite mounting external risks, the Vietnamese Government is unwavering in its commitment to the 8% growth target. This determination has been reaffirmed in the Prime Minister’s Directive No. 47/CĐ-TTg and throughout a series of April meetings with local governments. Key measures to support this ambition include accelerating public investment disbursement and expanding domestic consumption.
Economist Tran Dinh Thien emphasized the need to prioritize the domestic market, especially as global demand weakens. Vietnam’s internal market and private sector, he argued, should play a central role in sustaining growth.
Public Investment and the Private Sector: Twin Engines of Growth
One of the most critical levers for achieving growth is the disbursement of public investment. The Prime Minister has directed all localities to meet the goal of 100% disbursement of public investment capital by the end of 2025. Many provinces have already pledged their commitment, and if realized, this could significantly boost the national economy.
At the same time, the domestic private sector is seen as a key growth engine. General Secretary To Lam recently underscored that the private sector is “the most important driver of economic growth” and should be actively supported—not only as a short-term stimulus but also as a foundation for long-term sustainable development.
Conclusion: Growth Still Within Reach Amid Challenges
While Vietnam's economy faces considerable challenges in 2025, the Government’s strong commitment and proactive policies could help it reach the ambitious 8% growth target. The critical drivers will include accelerating public investment, fostering a robust domestic market, and pursuing favorable outcomes in tariff negotiations with the U.S. These efforts will be instrumental in maintaining momentum and ensuring Vietnam’s sustained, resilient economic growth in the years ahead.